[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR 18.4N
53.5W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 580 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS SPIRALING OUTWARD AND AWAY FROM
KATIA REACHES 32N46W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AT 03/0000 UTC IS NEAR 27.8N
91.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 180 MILES TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LEE IS
MOVING NORTHWARD 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL LOUISIANA FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN CLUSTERS IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N62W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 340 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS
FEATURE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS BECOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N29W 13N31W...TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 19N
BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 17N16W
TO 15N18W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N24W TO 10N31W
7N37W AND 8N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
AFRICA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF INTEREST RIGHT NOW IS TROPICAL STORM LEE
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
SYSTEM. MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W IS EITHER DIRECTLY
RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM LEE AND/OR AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGER-SCALE FLOW THAT IS AROUND LEE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N65W...
ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
14N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO
THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 12N80W...AND BEYOND
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST
OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA FROM 9N TO 12N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA...PASSING THROUGH 33N52W TO 27N57W
TO 19N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W...AND WITHIN
A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 32N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N71W INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
14N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N29W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W
AND 34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 63W...MOVING
AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N41W.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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