[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N
51.8W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 47W-55W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 02/1200 UTC IS
NEAR 27.0N 91.6W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 180 NM SW OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY
MOVING N AT 1 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 85W-91W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR 38N63W. THIS LOW CENTER IS
ABOUT 350 NM TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW CENTER IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N27W...TO A 1011
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N29W...TO 6N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 28W-33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER WEST AFRICA EXITS THE COAST NEAR 16N16W
AND EXTENDS SW TO ONLY 15N20W. THE TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVE...
AND T.S. KATIA HAVE DISRUPTED THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-17N BETWEEN
16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF INTEREST RIGHT NOW IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ALL
THE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NUMEROUS BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ARE REPORTING 25-30 KT WINDS. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.  EXPECT...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN TO DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND A STORM SURGE OF 2-4 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SE TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF
17N...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N
COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO N COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...HAITI...AND
JAMAICA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL STORM KATIA IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE A 1010 MB LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 30N67W 25N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W. THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER T.S. KATIA. EXPECT KATIA TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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