[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 45.9W AT 01/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 925 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 17
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
27N89W TO S MEXICO AT 16N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-29N
BETWEEN 83W-89W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N23W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 20N E OF 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W AND
TERMINATES. THE TROPICAL LOW AND HURRICANE KATIA HAVE DISRUPTED
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 11W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF THE TROPICAL LOW FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO.
SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 26N W OF 94W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO SPREAD NW OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE
MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO N COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN
72W-76W. THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS HURRICANE KATIA IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE A PROMINENT SURFACE
TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N11W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 29N17W 27N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN
47W-56W. EXPECT KATIA TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/PAW





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