[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 2N TO 10N.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N19W
7N32W 5N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 90W. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W
26N84W 23N87W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST NEAR 28N80W...TO THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 24N85W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 13N82W 16N83W 18N86W 20N86W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N76W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N82W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N70W...
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 31/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 0.41 OF AN INCH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N59W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 27N72W 28N79W...
AND THEN BEYOND 28N80W ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 29N64W 27N70W...BEYOND
24N80W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA
WAS 0.59 OF AN INCH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N56W 6N57W.
IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS
OR SO. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM NORTHERN GUYANA
NEAR 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N45W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N52W...TOWARD 20N60W. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 41W
AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 13N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W 28N79W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net