[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
12N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N20W TO 06N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 11W-27W..AND FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 27W-36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 44W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER SE LOUISIANA TO A
BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER FARTHER EAST...AS OF 31/0900
UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W TO THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO LIFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDE THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY S OF 28N E OF 88W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...N TO NE WINDS AND
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF MOVES EASTWARD...THE FRONT OVER THE SE
GULF IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING AND NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 79W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 28N56W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTER OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 17N83W. WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 20N86W. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 11N81W TO 16N83W TO 19N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
STRONGER CONVECTION THIS MORNING S OF 18N W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 81W. THIS STRONGER PRECIPITATION WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
15N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 63W-71W...AND S OF
14N BETWEEN 67W-75W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W SW ALONG 26N72W
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
75 NM SOUTH AND EAST...AND S OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N36W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W TO 23N48W AS A REFLECTION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 45W-53W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 31/0044 UTC
DEPICTED 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 38W-62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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