[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
12N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N22W TO 04N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 19W-29W...AND FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NE CONUS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF ALONG
29N89W TO A BASE NEAR 22N97W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY LINKED TO
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...AS OF 30/0900 UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. NW OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT PREVAIL ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N94W
TO 22N98W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN W OF 70W FALLS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N63W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTER TO OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 14N85W.
WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
EASTERLY TRADES FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N82W TO
17N82W TO 23N83W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 75W-85W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE W OF 77W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONVECTIVELY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...PASSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF
A LINE FROM 18N71W TO 11N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN US SEABOARD INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W THAT CONTINUES SW
ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EAST N
OF 26N...AND 90 NM WEST N OF 25N OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W
AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 25N43W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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