[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

 ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL TO 13N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N23W
ALONG 3N30W 7N41W TO 4N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-46W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 13W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W SUPPORTING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N85W 22N89W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMNANTS OF
RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW THAT AT 29/0900 UTC IS JUST S OF THE W TIP
OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA ALONG 27N85W TO
24N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE FRONT E OF 84W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO N YUCATAN
BY SUN MORNING BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF MON BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO NW CUBA TUE AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER JAMAICA COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND
W ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW THAT AT 29/0900
UTC IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE W TIP OF CUBA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG
12N78W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
NEAR 11N84W ARE GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N TO OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN 74W-84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
17N TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI BETWEEN 73W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
E CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF
RINA WILL DRIFT S AND BECOME ABSORBED IN WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE THEN WASHING OUT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO
BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE W ATLC AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 73W-80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 28N70W ALONG 30N68W TO BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 33N31W THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N48W TO 28N68W AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE
AREA BETWEEN 45W-65W FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N39W
TO 20N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N37W TO 24N40W. A
SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N46W
TO 14N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM E
OF BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA SUN AND LIFT N MON AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL TRACK QUICKLY NE
WITH A NEW COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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