[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM RINA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT 28/1500 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA AT
28/1500 UTC IS NEAR 21.8N 86.6W...PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF ISLA
CONTOY OF MEXICO...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 48 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CANCUN MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST/
025 DEGREES 5 KT OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF RINA.
THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ANYWHERE
FROM 120 NM TO 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...FROM 23N
TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N16W NEAR
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF
20W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO
26N95W... TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 22N...CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N102W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM TEXAS
AND MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N...
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 28N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 12N TO 20N. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND
80W. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS FROM
16N TO SOUTHERN COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 22N39W...TO
A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 14N56W...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREAS FROM GUYANA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RINA COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 24N56W 19N63W. THE BROAD LARGE-SCALE WIND
FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W 19N63W LINE...
WITH A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WAY AWAY FROM RINA TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND THE 25N37W 14N56W 8N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...IN SURFACE CONFLUENT
WIND FLOW AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 3249W TO 29N64W 28N73W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 22N39W...TO
A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 14N56W...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N42W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N46W...TO 11N48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N39W 19N38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREAS FROM GUYANA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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