[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 87.1W AT 28/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 13 NM W OF CANCUN MEXICO MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
85W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N21W ALONG 8N29W TO 7N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N28W TO 4N38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N E OF 88W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W
LOUISIANA AND ALL OF TEXAS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER
THE W GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE RAPIDLY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM
RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN
TURN S AND REMAIN IN THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM RINA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES OVER NE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG 81W
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 18N81W TO 12N80W
AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N
OF 12N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 11N80W
TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-78W.
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND THROUGH FRI
NIGHT WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THEN TURN S REMAINING IN THE CARIBBEAN THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S
OF 32N W OF 70W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 75W TO OVER FLORIDA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W TO 26N49W WHERE IT
BECOMES A STATIONARY DISSIPATING FRONT TO 24N63W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO
OVER THE SE CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 32N55W AND
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO
65W MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
31N27W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N37W TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 16N44W TO A WEAKER THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 13N58W
AND SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N38W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
17N29W TO 23N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N41W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N46W TO 13N47W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 41W-44W.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN INTO MON. A LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT MON AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW









This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net