[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251209
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 25/1200 UTC IS NEAR 17.4N 83.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN...OR ABOUT 305 MI...490
KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 12N81W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH TIME...
AND IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO FOR THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W
AND 3N24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF
22W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N68W...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD ITS BASE THAT CUTS RIGHT TOWARD THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 32N65W 27N80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
BEYOND 32N66W. THESE CLOUDS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RINA...
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N69W
30N66W BEYOND 32N64W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM HURRICANE RINA COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN CONNECTION WITH A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N67W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT EACH PHENOMENON.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
ALONG 16N62W 21N63W 25N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N62W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LA PENINSULA DE LA
GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 11N80W BEYOND COSTA RICA
ALONG 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
ALONG 16N62W 21N63W 25N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N42W TO 15N50W...
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N54W...
TO 9N61W ALONG THE VENEZUELA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W
AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...TO THE EAST OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
MOROCCO...AND WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N10W...STILL
IN MOROCCO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N68W
27N75W COLD FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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