[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.2N 83.3W.
RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 3 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ELSEWHERE FROM
19N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W
AND 85W IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
13N80W...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...TO CUBA NEAR 20N77W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N63W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH TIME...AND
IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 4N16W
AND 4N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD ITS BASE THAT CUTS RIGHT TOWARD
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 32N69W 27N80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LAKE OKEECHOBEE
IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BEYOND 32N69W. THESE CLOUDS ARE CAUGHT UP IN
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RINA THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N71W TO 27N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND 70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM HURRICANE RINA COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN CONNECTION WITH A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N63W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT EACH PHENOMENON.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR GUADELOUPE...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN
61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY
BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 16N61W 20N62W 24N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
ALONG 16N61W 20N62W 24N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 17N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N42W TO 15N49W...
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N53W...
TO 10N61W NEAR TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N
TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
33W AND 40W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
MOROCCO...AND WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N13W...
ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...16N...BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 70W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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