[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231702
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 15N81W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS N OF THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W
TO INCLUDE NE NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH
MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
PRESENTLY INBOUND TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING ALONG 12N28W 7N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM
4N-15N BETWEEN 30W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N39W
TO 13N46W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 10N55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TENNESSEE NEAR 36N84W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE N GULF IN 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE
ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 22N78W 19N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF JAMAICA...ALONG THE COAST OF NW
VENEZUELA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.
FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 58W-62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WHILE THE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SPREADS W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N71W TO 27N76W
TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W
OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 59W-64W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL LOW
NEAR 10N55W TO MOVE NW TO THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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