[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N34W 15N40W 10N45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N37W 11N45W 8N51W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N54W 10N55W 6N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS SURROUNDED
BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE
TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 5N11W AND 7N15W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND
24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. AND STRAIGHT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...THROUGH THE BORDER OF EASTERN GUATEMALA/NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N80W TO 14N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...ALONG THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO
HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
20/0000 UTC FOR HAVANA CUBA WAS 1.24 INCHES AND THE TOTAL FOR
TEGUCIGALPA WAS 0.51 INCHES. OTHER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA TO
THE NORTH OF 27N...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW... THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
12.5N76W...AND FROM LAND TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE
WEST OF 73W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 72W IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MEAN CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N46W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE WATERS FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W
27N30W 25N20W...BEYOND AFRICA ALONG 25N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO
26N65W BEYOND 32N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net