[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N33W TO 13N38W TO 8N40W MOVING
W AT 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 1008 MB LOW
IS ALSO EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N38W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-19N
BETWEEN 31W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N49W TO 5N53W MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N
BETWEEN 40W-55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO THE LARGE
CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INTACT INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CONSEQUENTLY
...THE ITCZ OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ALSO DISRUPTED BY THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TAMPICO
MEXICO....WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 20-25 KT
NW WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS. A COOLER AIRMASS WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...OVER E HONDURAS...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 78W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N79W
TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N AND W OF 76W
MOVING E. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA. A 1015 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N42W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ALSO CENTERED AT 28N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
40W-47W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N22W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 12W-20W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 30N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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