[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 15N33W 11N36W
8N37W AT 19/0000 UTC HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 14N35W 11N37W
7N38W IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. IT IS NOT
EASY TO KNOW IF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE WAVE
DIRECTLY IN SOME WAY. STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 13N55W 10N56W
7N57W AT 19/0000 UTC HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 14N47W 10N49W
6N51W IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N71W 13N72W...TO THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER NEAR 10N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE
TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL AFRICA NEAR
13N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N16W TO 11N26W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W
AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W...FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.A. AND STRAIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR 20N AT THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 19N86W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 24N90W AND 21N97W AT THE MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA ALL THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THAT HAVE COVERED THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS, ETC. FOR THE LAST
FOUR DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W COVERING THE AREA FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA TO CUBA...AND FROM CUBA ALONG 81W INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 86W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEARLY COMPLETELY TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 86W FROM 20N TO 21N...AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF
75W IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
COASTAL NICARAGUA...NEAR PARTS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 25N50W AND 16N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 18N48W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net