[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
16N31W TO 7N37W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N35W. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND IS HAS OF LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 35W-38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF BRAZIL FROM 12N50W TO 7N51W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N68W
TO 10N71W MOVING 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ON
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT IS W OF N COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

DUE TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES...THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED ...WHILE THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INTACT INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A SMALL
STRIP OF ITCZ IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 11N37W TO
10N45W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N46W BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOBILE BAY TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 25-30 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. 20-25
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 82W-85W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF N FLORIDA. A 1003 MB LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N86W. 20 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THIS LOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THIS LOW CENTER
OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM
23N-28N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF THIS LOW CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 83W-89W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND CONTINUED CONVECTION SE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N-29N W OF 76W MOVING E. A
1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 30N34W 27N35W 24N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS ALSO CENTERED AT 28N28W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
25N-32N BETWEEN 23W-28W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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