[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SE GULF
OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1003 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N88W AT 16/0900 UTC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 82W-89W. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA
...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE S
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N35W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N37W TO 7N38W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 57W BETWEEN 9N-17N
MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N51W TO 12N56W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 7N27W. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 10W-22W AND FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 17W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES
TO 25N88W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF PRODUCING A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE
GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR APALACHICOLA TO JUST N OF
TUXPAN MEXICO. NW OF THIS SHEAR AXIS ARE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TO THE SE...MOIST
TROPICAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 89W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 90W.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WHILE
DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MAY
POSSIBLY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE W GULF TUE
THROUGH WED AND MOVE E OF THE GULF BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RE-BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
20N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N79W THROUGH THE 1003 MB IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES CONTINUING OVER S MEXICO AND IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 18N82W AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THEW COAST OF CUBA W OF 78W. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. THE BROAD LOW OVER THE E
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH TUE. W TROPICAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE AS IT
WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED
REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
JUST E OF BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR NAPLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT W OF 74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC N OF THE FRONT TO 30N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 25N47W TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 20N52W TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 41W-44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
ABOVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 22N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
17N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 22N E OF 60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N TODAY
AND N OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
31N. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN LATER TUE THROUGH WED IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY
LATE WED THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 31N70W TO W
CUBA BY LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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