[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N32W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N36W TO 8N36W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO
8N58W MOVING 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 7N21W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N E OF 20W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 11W-26W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N45W TO 11N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG
24N80W TO 23N88W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF PRODUCING A
SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR
APALACHICOLA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. NW OF THIS SHEAR AXIS ARE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TO THE SE...MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE
SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON AS
IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE
ACROSS THE W GULF TUE THROUGH WED THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF BY WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEAR
19N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THIS IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 17N81W THROUGH AN ILL-DEFINED BUT BROAD 1005 MB
ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W CONTINUING
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 20N77W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES E OF 70W. THE BROAD SURFACE LOW ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
AMERICA AND W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH TUE AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE W AND WILL LARGELY DAMPEN OUT IN THE E CARIBBEAN
SUN INTO MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WED AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E
OF BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W
OF 74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF LINE
FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA ALONG 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W
ALONG 2643W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N51W TO OVER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N61W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N42W TO 18N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 22N E OF 60W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW
SUN AFTERNOON THEN LIFT N OF 28N MON THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF FLORIDA EARLY WED REACHING FROM
31N72W TO THE NW COAST OF CUBA BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net