[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N27W TO
4N32W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE GFS
STREAMLINES AND IN THE SATELLITE WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N46W TO
10N50W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA TO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 15N21W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
5W-14W...AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO
SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF
THE FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA DUE TO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. 10 KT NE
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N GUATEMALA NEAR
17N90W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
THE LOW CENTER TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N70W TO
14N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 68W-72W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION
ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AND FAIR WEATHER N OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MOVE W TOWARDS
JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO MELBOURNE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N74W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 64W-69W. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 240 NM NE
OF THE CENTER. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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