[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 12N25W TO
5N30W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE GFS
STREAMLINES AND IN THE SATELLITE WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N41W TO
7N44W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA TO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES TO 14N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 6N32W TO 9N41W. THE ITCZ ALSO EXTENDS FROM 10N45W
TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS
ALONG 29N90W 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
83W-88W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AT 14N73W TO 14N80W TO THE SURFACE LOW OFF BELIZE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 72W-83W.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL AROUND
PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN ...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT CAN EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
29N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N39W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW TO BE NEAR 31N71W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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