[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N19W 10N22W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 65W/66W AT
12/0600 UTC IS NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. IT HAS BEEN DROPPED
FROM THE 12/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N16W. IT
STARTS AGAIN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR IT CONTINUES FROM 9N19W
TO 10N23W 8N28W 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N33W TO 9N39W
AND 6N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 54W.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND
57W...NEAR THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT REACHES 7N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
ALSO IS CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM JOVA
THAT MADE LANDFALL ALREADY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO LATE
LAST NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N93W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM
COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N93W...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CUTS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...TO THE EAST OF 66W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 23N51W 20N53W TO 8N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 67W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER INTO THE
JAMAICA CHANNEL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...AND BETWEEN 70W AND
74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 22N75W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 10N79W.NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN
59W AND 61W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W AND
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
24N76W TO 22N75W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 10N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER INTO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
WINDWARD CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W
TO 25N50W...TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 20N53W...TO 7N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N40W TO 10N48W.
A SHEAR AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS ALONG 31N33W 26N40W 22N49W 23N56W
26N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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