[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N62W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N17W TO 06N22W TO 10N29W TO 07N40W TO 06N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 10W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA AT 30N85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N83W 25N84W
23N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
83W-88W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S MEXICO S OF 18N BETWEEN 90W-100W. EXPECT THE FLORIDA LOW TO
DRIFT NE TO S GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW LOW IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA AT 18N75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
72W-76W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE
ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN LOW TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN AT 12N80W TO EL SALVADOR AT 14N89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N
W OF 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM W PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N66W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 71W-76W. ON THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO 25N45W 23N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 25N23W TO 18N24W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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