[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS DOWNGRADED TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
AT 09/0300 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 38.4N 43.9W AT 09/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 795 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING N-NE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO
S OF 31N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-85W INCLUDING
THE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW AT 4-9 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W TO 8N53W MOVING NW 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPIKE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS
CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W
TO 13N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N23W 7N35W TO 8N49W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-12N...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 3N30W TO 4N38W AND 7N33W TO 10N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF OVER
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N85W CONTINUING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM TUXPAN TO THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER TEXAS.
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO GALE FORCE COVERS THE GULF AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS N GEORGIA TO S ALABAMA INTO THE GULF
TO NEAR 25N93W. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS N GULF
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OVER E GULF
TONIGHT INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER HONDURAS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
68W-76W AND N OF 16N TO ACROSS JAMAICA AND OVER CUBA BETWEEN
76W-80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W
ALONG 10N80W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
10N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR E
AND FAR W CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 76W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC BETWEEN 60W-76W...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N W OF
60W TO OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THEN NW ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-60W SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 26N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N60W THEN A SHEAR AXIS TO 26N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60/90 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 40W AND
ANCHORED N OF SPAIN. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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