[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 082053
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED
BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 35.3N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 37.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1800Z 40.5N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 44.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 48.5N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 56.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART






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