[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.1N 50.1W AT 08/0900
UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 750 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 21 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER STRONG SW
SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N44W TO 4N49W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W
TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N20W 6N31W TO 7N43W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF 10N
AND N OF LINE FROM 2N30W TO 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N BETWEEN 19W-25W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE E
GULF OVER APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N E OF 88W TO OVER
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF N OF 25N ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS N GEORGIA TO S ALABAMA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR
25N95W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 22N. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OVER N GULF AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR S
FLORIDA AND WILL THEN TRACK NE OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W TO NEAR 13N76W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1007 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N74W ALONG 11N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W TO
PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 14N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 76W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N68W ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N72W.
THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SW OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF GEORGIA
NEAR 31N81W ALONG 28N73W TO 25N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THEN
NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS JUST TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N W OF 55W ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF PHILIPPE NEAR 29N50W ALONG
26N54W TO 24N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 56W.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS E OF PHILIPPE EXTENDING FROM 24N27W
CENTERED NEAR 30N34W TO BEYOND 33N36W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 33W-36W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W AND
ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE W ATLC
THROUGH MON. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S FLORIDA
OR THE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT OR SUN THEN WILL TRACK ALONG OR NEAR
THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
S OF BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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