[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 07/2100
UTC...LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 54.2W...ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF
BERMUDA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-33N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N42W TO 2N47W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A A REGION OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN
SHOWS BROAD/WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
19N16W TO 14N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N23W TO 7N43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N
BETWEEN BETWEEN 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE EASTERN GULF E OF
85W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA E OF 84W...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC 10-25 KT ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE WEST GULF...TWO LINES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM AND HEAD TOWARD THE COAST OF TEXAS W OF
95W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
INCREASING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THE EAST BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TRADE FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W. THE SAME UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS ERN
CUBA TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 20N76W TO 17N78W. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS AN AREA S OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO N OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-70W. LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 15N70W. THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WRN N ATLC SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N W OF 65W.
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION UP TO 30 KT...
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION TRACKING NE...EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N36W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 29W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net