[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.1N
58.1W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 4N TO 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W
AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 17N16W...AND
THEN IT IS DISRUPTED AND NOT APPARENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N19W 4N27W 6N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 93W
AND 94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 85W...AND IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO
THE EAST OF 65W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 18N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 17N69W TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 10N78W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
SOME PRECIPITATION CELLS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING IN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N70W 13N83W AT THE EASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA
BEYOND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 24N74W. THIS
TROUGH IS A RESULT OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND A REMNANT TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 31N54W. HURRICANE PHILIPPE IS ABOUT
260 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N66W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N71W...TO 21N74W NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS
A REMNANT OF THE EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N37W TO 16N38W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT











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