[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 06/2100 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N
59.0W OR ABOUT 370 NM SE OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NE AT 8
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 58W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 56W-59W...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N32W TO 1N36W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
ALSO LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN
28W-42W WITH THE MAXIMUM VALUES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ONLY A LITTLE OFF THE WEST AFRICAN
COAST FROM 17N16W TO 17N18W. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF CONVECTION
ARE WAY TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ACROSS THE BASIN. WHILE MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 91W-95W.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25N93W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE E AND NE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS HELPING SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA INFLUENCED BY THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA
RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TURKS AND
CAICOS TO HAITI WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HAITI. AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY LIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-70W. 10-15 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW IS BASIN-WIDE.
ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
EXPECT THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO ADVECT WWD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC WITH A
SWATCH OF MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM TURKS AND CAICOS NE
TO JUST W OF HURCN PHILIPPE. THIS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FROM 25N72W TO 22N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N70W TO HAITI
NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
65W-69W. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF PHILIPPE EXTENDING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE E OF PHILIPPE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND
A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N49W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FARTHER E
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS...A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
32N39W...AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTER OF THE SECOND LOW TO NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-36W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 25W-32W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALSO FARTHER S ALONG
15N39W TO 10N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS.
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES CENTERED
NEAR 13N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON









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