[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR
26.8N 60.6W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 7 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.
A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N59W.
THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE HAS GONE DOWN A BIT AND THE WIND SPEEDS
HAVE INCREASED A BIT ALSO DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST IS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
PHILIPPE IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N49W THAT IS TO THE EAST OF IT...AND A COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS TO THE WEST OF IT. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N58W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO 28N64W...TO 25N70W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO
22N78W ALONG THE CUBA COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N33W 10N31W 4N30W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N36W 13N34W 8N33W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN
30W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N36W 15N40W 11N44W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 19N16W.
IT DOES NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. NO ITCZ EXISTS BECAUSE
OF NO TRADEWIND CONFLUENT FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL/OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES ON TOP OF 25N70W IN THE BAHAMAS...
TO 22N78W ALONG THE CUBA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 16N68W...TOWARD THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
WITH THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N TO THE WEST OF 69W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 20N79W TO 16N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
HAVE BEEN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT...

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N58W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO 28N64W...TO 25N70W IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO 22N78W ALONG THE CUBA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 20 TO
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N66W 25N70W 23N73W 21N76W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W 27N74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N33W TO 24N41W TO 16N43W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 47W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W 23N30W 19N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net