[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 61.3W AT 05/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 460 NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 59W-62W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N28W TO 14N27W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO FRACTURE AND MOVE
NORTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS APPARENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N48W TO 13N40W. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC.
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE S OF 11N...
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 35W-41W MAINLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND IS
LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
17N19W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN
WHICH IS IN SUPPORT OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
DRY AIRMASS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF IN SUPPORT OF A STALLED OUT AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF FROM 24N80W TO 23N87W.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE IN PLACE AND ROTATING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SW
NORTH ATLC THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N92W TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EASTERLY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W TO
23N66W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
NW OF A LINE FROM 20N77W TO 15N83W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N73W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
11N73W. EAST OF THIS AXIS...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CONVERGENT E OF 70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 18N E OF 70W...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED AND INTENSE TSTMS
OCCURRING OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN
SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC AREA NEAR 32N60W WHICH EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N70W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
STATIONARY AND EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 70W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W.
FARTHER SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE OPEN ATLC HIGH SEAS WATERS...
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A NORTHERLY TRACK
AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDIRECT NORTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
50W AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N48W. A CONTRASTING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 36N45W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N33W. BOTH REMAIN AMPLIFIED
AND THEREFORE AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N33W
REMAINS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTERED ALONG 28N31W TO 23N38W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 24N-33N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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