[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.7N 60.8W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 5 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. PHILIPPE IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN
A SURFACE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W
TO 24N55W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N67W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 29N67W AND IT CONTINUES TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N29W 9N26W 5N24W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N34W 12N40W 9N47W.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN STRETCHED ALONG A MORE EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTATION AS IT HAS BECOME CLOSER TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N19W. NO ITCZ EXISTS BECAUSE OF NO TRADEWIND CONFLUENT FLOW.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
30W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
WAS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITH
TIME DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N62W TO 29N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...CURVING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...REACHING CENTRAL GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W
TO 25N67W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CURVING TOWARD
THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...REACHING CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N67W...TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W
TO 10N80W BEYOND SOUTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
15N66W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 24N36W TO 14N45W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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