[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 04/1500 UTC IS NEAR
23.9N 59.4W OR ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSE OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 58W-60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N35W 10N40W 6N41W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
7N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 9N45W TO 8N54W TO VENEZUELA AT 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 56W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N86W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF
22N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE GULF OF HONDURAS
...AND HONDURAS FROM 20N87W TO 14N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15W-20W BETWEEN
80W-87W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA DUE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT. FURTHER S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
73W-76W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W S OF 65N. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E
OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER
CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO 24N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN
64W-67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. T.S. PHILIPPE HAS A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 25N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 24W-27W. EXPECT
LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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