[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR
23.6N 58.3W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE CIRCULATION THAT
IS AROUND PHILIPPE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W 12N35W 9N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT REALLY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH...IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND
10N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 21N30W 14N40W 9N48W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N19W AND 7N23W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT BECAUSE OF NO
CONFLUENT TRADEWIND FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
86W/87W FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS TO 20N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 77W IN THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 75W AT THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BEYOND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 53W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND 10N49W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS
AROUND TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 28N32W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N34W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 33W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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