[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

OPHELIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 03/1200 UTC
IT IS CENTERED NEAR 47.1N 54.3W. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER
THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR
25.8N 54.9W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS CUTTING INTO PHILIPPE FROM THE NORTH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 10N TO
17N. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MIXED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
10N30W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE
OF NO CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADEWINDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 5N TO 11N...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHOSE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR COVERS
THE AREA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA...TO 31N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N66W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE WITHIN 240 TO
300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N65W TO 20N72W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HAITI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
83W/84W FROM EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS TO 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N78W TO SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 13N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W BEYOND 10N...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 54W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
FROM AN AZORES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 19N37W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N28W TO 27N29W TO 24N33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THE
SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES 31N17W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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