[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR
45.5N 56.5W. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 37 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 45N TO SOUTHERN COASTAL NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR
26.1N 53.9W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N28W TO 12N29W
10N29W. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MIXED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 16N16W...AND IT
CONTINUES TO 13N25W 10N28W 9N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N34W
TO 8N40W 5N50W INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL AFRICA FROM 8N TO
11N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W COVERING SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 14N20W 9N28W 8N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHOSE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR COVERS
THE AREA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 28N70W AND TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE WITHIN
240 TO 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N65W TO 20N72W ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
83W/84W FROM EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS TO 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N78W TO THE NICARAGUA/
PANAMA BORDER. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W BEYOND 10N...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 54W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
FROM AN AZORES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 19N37W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N28W TO 26N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THE SOUTHERN END
OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N14W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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