[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 42.4N 59.8W AT 03/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 390 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 29 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 40N-44N BETWEEN
56W-62W.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 52.9W AT 02/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 720 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N27W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS BUT HAS LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W 16N19W S TO 11N22W 9N29W TO 7N37W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N37W 6N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 92W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W OVER
W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 20N94W TO 21N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF N OF 27N AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NW CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 150/180 NM OF
THE N GULF COAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAK FRONT
STALLED OVER THE S GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SOME ON MON THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN BEGINNING ON TUE AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
HONDURAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO E CUBA NEAR 20N78W. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
17N80W TO THE TIP OF NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W
OF 80W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA HAVE
MOVED N OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN
73W-75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 13N. GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N69W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
FRONT STALLED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W ALONG 28N71W TO 26N76W WHERE
IT CROSSES THE BAHAMAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N68W
TO 23N72W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W TO BEYOND 32N62W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF OF A LINE FROM 22N72W TO BEYOND
32N65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W IN WHICH TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N58W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 13N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N53W INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN OVER GRENADA. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN
15W-50W WHICH IS HELPING TO SHEAR TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N23W TO
27N26W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA THROUGH MID WEEK. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ON WED. PHILIPPE WILL
MOVE NE WED NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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