[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GHANA. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N29W
AND 8N39W AND 7N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. COLD-AIR
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...25N95W AND 19N93W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD...NOW TO THE NORTH OF 25N
TO THE EAST OF 90W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 29N67W FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N63W...
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 14N67W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N59W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO 28N63W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO GUADELOUPE
AND ISLA LA TORTUGA OF VENEZUELA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM
FROM 10 TO 16 FEET IN PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERN SWELL. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 14N80W...ACROSS
SAINT LUCIA...TO 12N69W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA TO 13N
TO THE WEST OF 57W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...ULTIMATELY COVERING THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W...
THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS THE PENINSULA DE
AZUERO OF PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 29N67W 27N65W 22N63W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...

THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N74W AND THE BAHAMAS
NEAR CAT ISLAND AND THE EXUMA CAYS TO 24N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 24N77W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...
TO 19N80W...CURVING TO 14N81W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 11N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W
25N73W AND CUBA NEAR 21N75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W 25N62W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 27N TO 32N.
THIS TROUGH IS THE REMAINS OF THE 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF 24 HOURS AGO. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N42W 21N45W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MOROCCO TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...THROUGH 28N22W TO 27N35W TO 29N40W. THIS TROUGH
EXISTS IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGHS/1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ARE ALONG 28N63W
23N59W...TO GUADELOUPE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N17W TO 22N28W AND 25N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WHOSE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS BETWEEN 26N AND 43W...IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
OF THE 30N17W 25N40W TROUGH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N TO 20N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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