[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEAR
11N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N15W ALONG 8N21W 7N33W 5N48W
TO NEAR 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 9W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF TO
OVER THE W ATLC WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO AND WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS E OF 82W. DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE SE GULF AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH
IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OFF
THE TEXAS COAST SUN AND REACH FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT
30/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA JUST E OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ALONG 15N81W TO THE COAST NEAR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALL BUT THE
FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N81W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E
OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
A NEWLY FORMED 1007 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W
ACROSS GUADALOUPE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-64W. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM
E CUBA TO SW CARIBBEAN WED THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THU. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 30/0300 UTC NEAR 32N74W ALONG
27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE
AVILA CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 56W-70W AND EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR
28N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N61W
TO A NEWLY FORMED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N61W CONTINUING ACROSS GUADALOUPE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N40W ALONG
23N51W TO 33N55W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
W OF 57W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
53W-59W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR 20N55W TO
30N58W. THE PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N43W
TO 22N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SPAIN. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1007
MB LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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