[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 7N17W TO 6N30W AND 6N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 22N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W
AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
25N80W 26N90W 20N97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA FROM
10N76W BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS
FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST
OF 80W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO
22N32W AND 19N33W. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 31N30W AND
CONTINUES TO 25N34W 19N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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