[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
07N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N21W TO 05N30W TO 07N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 24W-32W...AND FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN
35W-40W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EXTEND OF THE
ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 05N47W TO 14N45W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 40W-50W IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD TO A BASE IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N85W WHERE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N93W INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N90W TO THE EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SE CONUS BY LATE
THURSDAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E-SE AND BRISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES
OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NE WINDS AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING NW OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO
15N83W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 09N TO 75W PROVIDING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN E-NE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-70W...N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-74W...
AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE ACTIVITY
LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 11N80W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE THEN SW INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WHICH INFLUENCES THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 55W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 60W-73W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 40W WITH
A BASE DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO 24N. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A
1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N37W AND A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N34W TO 26N36W TO 22N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N37W TO
26N41W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N22W TO
22N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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