[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N18W
ALONG 5N30W 6N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-33W AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE ONLY
MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 23N96W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 94W AND THE
COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 27N92W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE S
FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC
TODAY MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED
NEAR 13N79W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-87W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W
ALONG 11N80W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ALSO USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE N CARIBBEAN AND N OF
THE LEEWARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING ALONG
28N67W TO 27N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W
EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR TRINIDAD SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N59W THROUGH A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N57W CONTINUING ALONG 28N56W TO
BEYOND 32N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO WITHIN THIS UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N53W ALONG 17N53W TO 12N51W. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM NEAR 10N40W
ALONG 22N44W TO BEYOND 32N45W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 44W-52W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE E ATLC TO 18N E OF 34W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N15W TO
30N25W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N36W WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE STATIONARY
FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH AND LIFTS NE MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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