[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG
6N21W 6N39W TO 10N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 215 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-39W AND
WITHIN 215 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER W
CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS
NE OVER THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS N
OF 26N ALONG 95W MOVING RAPIDLY NE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW THAT AT 15/2100 UTC IS JUST E OF AUSTIN
TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR GALVESTON
TO 25N96W. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND RETURN FLOW TO
THE GULF W OF 93W. REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE SW GULF
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW
GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU AND WILL
DISSIPATE ALONG 25N FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS A PORTION
OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 71W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE NICARAGUA TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W
INDUCING AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES AND
DIVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE N AND
MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO THE S ALONG A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR SAINT VINCENT ALONG 12N70W 13N78W TO 18N85W AND
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM 17N85W TO 12N79W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 11N80W ACROSS COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE  W ATLC WILL
KEEP FRESH NE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THU AS THE RIDGE RETREATS E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC TO 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N52W
ALONG 24N60W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 19N62W THEN CONTINUING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 26N54W TO 19N58W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
17N60W TO 22N57W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 26N ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 26N45W TO 21N49W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-28W BETWEEN 40W-52W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N WITH A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N32W TO 28N41W ALL SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N23W. SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU REACHING FROM 32N70W TO NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS W INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER
E WILL DRIFT THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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