[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N14W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N16W ALONG
3N28W 7N40W TO 5N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N E OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONES
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WATERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OFF THE COAST
N OF TAMPICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ENE BASIN WHERE
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. RETURN FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE WRN GULF
THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE
GULF TUESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION...MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ACROSS BELIZE AND NRN HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DISSIPATED LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS CREATING AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 74W
...AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 20N74W TO 14N80W. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS
AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD INTO
THE ERN PACIFIC. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N E OF 68W DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS E
OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE KEEPING THE FAR WRN ATLC
UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE N-NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N60W BECOMING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS
AND INTO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70
NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
VICINITY PF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITHIN 200
NM N OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR
25N63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N50W TO
18N50W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR
ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 18W.
EXPECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
CENTRAL/WRN ATLC TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE NRN PORTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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