[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT THU NOV 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N
70.8W. SEAN IS MOVING NORTHWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT
SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 59W
AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W...AND
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 18N JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS COVER THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE
AREA OF SEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SENEGAL
AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N18W TO 5N32W TO 7N48W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
4N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 16N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 90W. IT APPEARS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT ONLY REACHES OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS AT THE MOMENT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N68W
TO A SHEAR ZONE NEAR 13N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM 18N JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF SEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N68W
IN THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N69W TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST TO 11N82W BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 70W FROM 28N TO 33N. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW/TROUGH THAT IS AROUND T.S. SEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N25W
28N33W 26N40W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N48W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 32N TO THE EAST OF
30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N38W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 7N41W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS
NEAR THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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