[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N49W 11N42W 6N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N
TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W...BECOMING ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO 9N23W 5N37W 4N46W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI...THROUGH ARKANSAS...
LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
25N...TO 24N100W...CURVING TO 28N107W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 92W...IN BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A CLEAR LINE OF ADVANCING
CLOUDINESS AND BY THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/SHEAR AXIS...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO 16N78W...AND TO
10N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM HONDURAS TO 18N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N IN NORTHERN
COSTA RICA TO 12N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N73W
ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...THROUGH 10N AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
AFTERNOON HEATING...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
11N75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THAT LINE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W
TO 27N70W...THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS
TO 16N78W AND 10N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 30N60W AND 26N67W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W 29N57W 26N59W...AND THE LINE 27N61W 25N63W 24N65W 22N68W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N67W TO RUM CAY IN THE BAHAMAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 68W AND
76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N63W 23N66W 20N68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N52W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 10N
TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA TO 16N20W AND 5N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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