[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE BETWEEN
10N-13N. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SPREADING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA ALONG 71W/72W S OF 13N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS INLAND AND IS APPROACHING
AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-72W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N11W 7N19W 6N31W 4N42W 5N50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM
8N49W 5N51W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF AND 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST EXTENDING N OF 26N BETWEEN THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE SW GULF WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER
THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE GULF UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC REMAINS OVER THE E GULF TO 90W GIVING THE W GULF S TO
SE RETURN FLOW SPREADING SMOKE FROM FIRES THAT CONTINUE OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 35N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY
STABLE AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 13N77W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N72W 13N79W TO 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER OF
COSTA RICA TO 13N. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS GIVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE DRY AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 68W.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED
BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W WSW ALONG
28N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC
N OF 26N W OF 65W EXTENDING TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO
26N55W NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO 20N46W SUPPORTING A SERIES OF 1014 MB
LOWS. THE PRIMARY 1014 SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N49W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 30N51W AND SE ALONG 24N48W THE
SW TO 21N52W. A SECOND 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N60W AND A THIRD NEAR 25N57W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 13N33W TO 32N41W PRODUCING DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 41W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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