[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND
GUYANA ANALYZED FROM 13N58W TO INLAND NEAR 5N60NW MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED-V
STRUCTURE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. HOWEVER...DRY NW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE
IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE...
ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN
VENEZUELA ALONG 70W S OF 14N W AT 5-10 KT. THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W SW ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 4N40W 2N50W 4N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 33W...AND W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING
REFLECTS ACROSS THE AREA...CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE
BASIN BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE OUTPUT OF THESE
CONDITIONS BRINGS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE SW
FLORIDA COAST S OF 26N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
HAZY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW BASIN INDICATED VISIBILITIES
BELOW 10 SM WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE
BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS EVENING. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THIS REGION. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON
TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 16N W OF 74W.
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLC KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N55W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 29N60W...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N55W...AND A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW ALONG
26N63W TO 25N68W. THIS TROUGH...NOR THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 27N53W TO THE EASTERNMOST LOW...THEN SW ALONG 21N51W
TO 18N55W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ASSOCIATED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF AN AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK REGION N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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