[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 11N53W 8N54W
5N54W. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE USE OF LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ENE AT ABOUT 10 KTS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.


...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N17W 5N26W
3N38W 4N47W 4N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO FROM JUST E OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS...AS OF 1500 UTC. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY OVER
WATER WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING INLAND.
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES INFLUENCED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC...AND DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR A STRIP OF UPPER MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF
SMOKE W OF 92W DUE TO WILD FIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
HONDURAS. LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN GULF WITH 10-15 KT SE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BECOMING SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL AND THEN LIFT
NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CONUS DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA.
THIS AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. FARTHER S...A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO
12N78W IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS N OF VENEZUELA
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WINDSAT PASS
FROM 1020 UTC ALSO INDICATES THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE
PRESENT ALONG 65W. THIS MOST LIKELY IS CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE
FLAIR OVER INLAND VENEZUELA AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
MOVES WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC CENTERED AROUND A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N64W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
FAR WRN ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CAUSING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG
60W. THIS PATTERN HAS FORMED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 31N47W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALONG
27N52W 24N52W 23N58W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N46W 25N46W 20N55W
BECOMING A SHEARLINE TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE SHEARLINE AND ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF 23N. N OF 23N...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
DIFFLUENCE ZONE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS
THE FAR E ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES WITH AN AXIS ALONG
35W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 33N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO JUST
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N21W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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