[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 2N37W...
REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W AND CONTINUING INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND
31W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W...FROM 3S TO 3N BETWEEN
31W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...
AND TEXAS IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N69W TO 29N80W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N90W...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA...AND INLAND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
PERSIST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEING IN THE AREA THAT IS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN
48W AND 77W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N56W. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N53W 23N57W
24N62W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N46W 24N48W 20N54W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N54W TO 19N64W INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W...AND FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 25N26W TO 20N28W. A 1012 MB LOW CENTER ALSO
IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS AND 26N24W. IT IS NOT
EASY TO DISCERN ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 35W...BETWEEN
THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 30N46W 20N54W
SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 10N BEYOND 32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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