[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 4N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...A SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N83W
COMBINED WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS IS
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE
DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND ARE IN A RANGE OF 5-25 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING W OF 90W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER HAZY SKY W OF 92W AS SMOKE FROM
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE
CARIBBEAN IS CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-INLAND
OVER CUBA E OF 81W...OVER LA HISPANIOLA AND SOME REGIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS
FROM 15N79W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 35 NM MOSTLY TO THE N SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 87W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NW REGION OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO PERSIST IN THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD DUE TO DIFFLUENT WINDS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 70W-77W. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N48W WHICH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW. ONE EXTENDERS FROM 27N54W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N58W AND
NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N54W 29N48W 22N47W 17N57W. AS OF 21
UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THIS TROUGH N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 10N57W
TO 5N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME
NEAR THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS
SUPPORTING ANOTHER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 29N15W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS EVENING. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net